Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to have a meeting with Xi Jinping in China this week, aiming to strengthen the partnership between the two major strategic rivals of the United States.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to participate in the Belt and Road Forum taking place in Beijing on October 17-18. This will be his first official visit outside of the former Soviet Union since the International Criminal Court, based in The Hague, issued a warrant for his arrest in March. The warrant was issued in relation to the deportation of children from Ukraine.

China and Russia established an unrestricted partnership in February 2022, as emphasized during Putin’s visit to Beijing shortly before he deployed a significant number of troops to Ukraine, resulting in the most fatal land conflict in Europe since World War Two.

The United States considers China as its primary rival in the business realm, while viewing Russia as its most significant threat among nation-states. U.S. President Joe Biden asserts that the current era will be characterized by a critical competition between democratic and authoritarian systems.

According to Graham Allison, a former assistant secretary of defense under Bill Clinton and now a professor at Harvard University, the alliance between Xi’s China and Putin’s Russia is the most significant unacknowledged partnership globally in the last ten years, as reported by Reuters.

“The U.S. will have to come to grips with the inconvenient fact that a rapidly rising systemic rival and a revanchist one-dimensional superpower with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world are tightly aligned in opposing the USA”

Graham Allison

Biden has labeled Xi as an authoritarian ruler and has accused Putin of being both a murderer and an incapable leader. These comments made by Biden have drawn criticism from Beijing and Moscow.

Ever since the conflict in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has predominantly confined his activities to the nations that were formerly a part of the Soviet Union. However, he did make a trip to Iran last year to engage in discussions with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader.

Russia, which used to hold a prominent position within the global Communist hierarchy, is now seen as a subordinate partner to a revitalized China under the leadership of Xi Jinping, who is considered the most influential leader since Mao Zedong. This shift in dynamics has emerged in the three decades following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Putin and Xi hold a comprehensive perspective on the world that regards the West as decadent and in decline, while China concurrently challenges the United States’ dominance in various fields, including quantum computing, synthetic biology, espionage, and military capability.

However, Xi, the leader of an $18 trillion economy, must navigate the delicate balance between his personal rapport with Putin and the practicality of managing relations with the $27 trillion economy of the United States – which remains the world’s preeminent military force and holds the title of the wealthiest nation.

The US government has cautioned China about providing arms to Putin while Russia, an economy valued at $2 trillion, is engaged in a conflict with Ukrainian forces supported by the United States and the European Union.

According to knowledgeable sources in the business domain, it is apparent that Putin holds a prominent position as the guest of honor. It is anticipated that discussions pertaining to military and nuclear collaboration will be the main focus.

China may be hesitant to publicly engage in additional agreements that could be perceived as contributing to Putin’s financial resources and military efforts, given the current situation.

The situation of military cooperation becomes more intricate due to the ambiguity surrounding the future of Defence Minister Li Shangfu, who has been absent from public view for over six weeks.

According to sources, Alexei Miller and Igor Sechin, the leaders of Gazprom and Rosneft respectively, will accompany President Putin during his visit.

Russia is seeking to establish an agreement to increase its natural gas exports to China. To achieve this, they have proposed the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline. This pipeline would pass through Mongolia and have the capacity to transport 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas annually.

It remains uncertain whether the gas agreement, specifically its pricing and construction expenses, will be finalized.